In my recent press release I am quoted with the following:
“It’s unfortunate to emphasize, but if you read past the headlines, the news stories will show additional unemployment, rising gas prices, and rising fears in the future of this economy,” said Baker. “Keep in mind that while economists now say that the recession started in December of 2007, most people did not feel the effects of that recession until well into 2008.”
Some people may be wondering how I can say that “we’re not going to feel the effects of recovery any time soon” when top analyst are now going on record predicting that the recession will be over by December 2009.
I found the perfect explanation from none other than Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys Economy.com
“I will just give you some context. I expect the recession to end this year and then in 2010, we’ll see some growth, not a recession. But it will be a modest kind of growth. We’ll be uncomfortable with it and rising through the first half of the year. It won’t be until 2011/2012 before we start to see meaningful growth. The key reason for that is that there are large parts of our economy that are struggling. While the banking industry is better, it’s not really providing the kind of credit. So I think we’ll get just as much growth to get out of recession, but not more than that.”
So once you get past the big headlines, we now find that we are not going to see meaningful growth till 2011 or 2012. What does that mean?
The fact that the recession might be over in December 2009 is:
… at least to you and me.
The economy overall is not going to be back to “normal” any time soon. Our society is going to be struggling economically until at least 2011, if not 2012 by Mark Zandi’s own explanation.
The stories about this recession being over in December of 2009 are simply misleading. I don’t think that people are purposefully trying to deceive us. Perhaps the news media is just looking for something new to write about.
Recession or not, there are ways for businesses to overcome a bad economy. Stories about how Apple sold 1 million iPhones in the last 3 days (during a recession!) is where the media should be focusing their headlines.
“Instead of trying to pretend the bad stuff is soon behind us, let’s start talking about how innovative companies are determined to succeed in any economic environment.”
The economy is going to be in trouble until small businesses start seeing success with the advertising and marketing campaigns. The only way that they will see success is if they start advertising and marketing with a different style and technique than they did when the economy was in “meaningful” growth.
In The Recession Marketing Guide, I show several case studies on how businesses have changed their thinking in order to capatilize on bad economic times. The Recession Marketing Guide ebook is available free at:
- Tony Darrick Baker